Systems analysis of biomass and carbon capture across energy sectors

System costs increase by 20% without biomass

According to the results of this project, European efforts to achieve net-negative emissions could become significantly more expensive without biomass as part of the energy mix. Excluding biomass from Europe’s future energy system would increase total system costs by around 20%, roughly equivalent to the region’s current defense spending.

In scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), biomass is often considered in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, uncertainties regarding biomass availability affect the potential for achieving negative emissions, while opportunities for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) influence cost-effective strategies for biomass use.

This project analyzed how biomass, in combination with CCUS, affects resource-efficient and cost-effective biomass utilization to achieve climate targets across the energy system, including electricity, heating, transport, and industry. The study also examined the conditions under which captured carbon is utilized rather than permanently stored, the uncertainties influencing these choices, and how these factors may impact the energy system as a whole.

Biomass is a versatile but limited renewable resource, and its use must therefore be prioritized. While biomass plays an important role in the transition to a fossil-free society, its most valuable contribution may be as a source of renewable carbon that can be captured and either stored underground or used to produce synthetic fuels.

A small amount of biomass-based electricity generation, approximately 1% of total electricity production, would help maintain the reliability of power supply in a system dominated by wind and solar energy. Beyond this niche role, however, biomass can be used flexibly across different sectors without significantly affecting overall costs. Whether biomass is used for combined heat and power generation, fuel production, or industrial process heat is of less importance, provided its carbon content is utilized efficiently through carbon capture technologies.

Completely eliminating biomass, however, would require a much larger and more challenging expansion of renewable electricity generation, electrolyzers, and direct air carbon capture (DAC). This would increase the cost of the European energy system by around 20%, equivalent to an additional €169 billion per year.

While concerns about the sustainability of biomass have led to stricter restrictions in EU policy, the study indicates that excluding biomass would make climate targets significantly more expensive and more difficult to achieve.

More from the project

Read a news article from Chalmers University of Technology: Difficult and costly energy transition unless the EU invests in biomass (2025).

Read the article Diversity of biomass usage pathways to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system (Nature Energy, 23 January 2025)

Read the policy brief Biomass exclusion must be weighed against benefits of carbon supply in European energy system (Nature Energy, 23 January 2025)