A flexible bioeconomy – key factor to enabling investments in large-scale biorefineries

Domestic sustainable biogenic feedstocks are important in the energy system transition, but their use is severely limited by a lack of investment in large-scale biorefineries. One reason is market risks related to future developments in feedstock and product markets.

This project is based on the hypothesis that technologies and technology combinations that are flexible in terms of feedstocks and/or products are associated with lower investment risk. The overall aim of the project is therefore to facilitate large-scale investments by identifying flexible value chains and technologies, providing robustness given uncertain future markets. The project identifies combinations of technologies, which, without reinvesting throughout the value chain, can use different feedstocks and produce for different markets. Bio-CCS is also considered. The identified technologies are evaluated in terms of profitability, greenhouse gas performance, robustness and conflicts between profitability and risk.

Scientific Articles

Several articles have been published within the framework of the project:

• Electrification-enabled production of Fischer-Tropsch liquids – A process and economic perspective (2025)

• Risk, flexibility, and investment in Fischer–Tropsch fuels: Insights from real options analysis (2026)